Linkage between Results of Unified State Exam in Mathematics and Education Outcomes in Calculus and Analytical Geometry in the First Half-Year Term

Natalia M. Mezhennaya, Oleg V. Pugachev


Linkage between the rating points in the first half-year term in Calculus and Analytical Geometry, and the points of USE (Unified State Exam), of first-year students of engineering specialization is studied. The training sample includes the data of 365 students (284 male and 81 female students). Statistical analysis of gender samples has established that the points obtained by female students in Analytical Geometry were significantly (at level 5%) higher than the points obtained by male students; the points in Calculus in both gender samples had no significant difference. A significant positive correlation of all variables has been revealed; hereby, in the female student sample, the correlation is stronger. The authors have constructed regression models purposing to predict the students’ resulting term rating points in Calculus and Analytical Geometry in both gender samples by virtue of their USE points and ratings in both subjects before the exams. The adjusted coefficient of determination for the final rating in Calculus is about 0.85, as well as for the resulting rating in Analytical Geometry in the female student sample. In the male student sample, the coefficient of determination is 0.78. The mentioned differences make it preferable to use separate models for prediction of education outcomes for male and female students. The suggested regression model has been verified on a test sample of 161 students taught in the same specialization in the previous year. For the test sample, the regression model has shown good results. 


Academic Performance, Predictor, Rating, Regression Model, Unified State Exam

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